WIKILEAKS : FRANCE'S NUCLEAR POLICY

Friday, 31 July 2009, 06:59
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 PARIS 001039 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
EO 12958 DECL: 07/30/2019 
TAGS PARM, PREL, MNUC, IR, CH, UK, FR 
SUBJECT: FRANCE’S POSITION ON NUCLEAR ISSUES IN THE RUN-UP 
TO THE NPT REVCON
REF: A. PARIS POINTS JULY 15  B. PARIS POINTS JULY 6  C. PARIS POINTS APRIL 10  D. PARIS 1025
Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Kathy Allegrone for Reasons  1.4(b), (d).
¶1. (S/NF) SUMMARY: French officials have made clear that nuclear issues enjoy the sustained attention of President Sarkozy and have become a major foreign policy priority, especially in the run-up to the spring 2010 Review Conference (RevCon) of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). France’s concerns go beyond the conference, however, to include larger issues of the link between disarmament and deterrence, as well as non-proliferation. In various meetings, French officials have noted repeatedly what they see as worrying trends in both U.S. and UK disarmament policy pronouncements.  Based on the calculation that they cannot fight a winning battle against or without us, and alongside a public strategy of positioning themselves as leaders on disarmament, the French are at great pains to coordinate with the United States to assuage their own concerns and present a united front to others on these issues. The seriousness with which the GOF takes these issues means that France can be a valuable partner to the United States on nuclear issues if we can calm their fears over our position on disarmament while making clear our policy goals and redlines. END SUMMARY.
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PUBLICLY PROCLAIMING LEADERSHIP ON DISARMAMENT
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¶2. (S/NF) France kicked off its reaction to President Obama’s nuclear policies immediately following his April 5 remarks in Prague with a public campaign to highlight France’s efforts toward disarmament, comparing their achievements favorably to the objectives outlined by the U.S. President. On April 9, centrist daily Le Figaro - which tends to reflect official positions - published an anonymous report from the Elysee saying President Obama’s statement largely recalled positions long-held by France (ref C). To further highlight French leadership, the same paper reported just prior to President Obama’s visit to Moscow that France had opened up the dismantled Pierrelatte fissile material production site to a group of journalists (ref B) as proof of France’s commitment to stopping the production of fissile materials ahead of FMCT negotiations.
¶3. (C/NF) The French MFA also produced statements on July 7 and 10 - immediately following President Obama’s Moscow trip - trumpeting France’s steps towards disarmament and claiming a unique leadership role among nuclear powers. The statements cited France’s reduction of its nuclear warheads to 300, dismantling of fissile material production sites, and a moratorium on fissile material production, while welcoming U.S.-Russian negotiations to reduce nuclear arsenals “which represent 95% of the global stockpiles.”
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EAGER FOR ENERGETIC ENGAGEMENT
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¶4. (S/NF) This flurry of publicity was followed up in July by a series of high-level, interagency engagements by the GOF on nuclear issues with the Embassy and with key officials from Washington. Political Director Gerard Araud has vowed that France is ready to coordinate with the United States on these issues “every day if necessary” (Note: Araud is headed to New York in late August to take up his new position as PermRep. End Note.). Jacques Audibert, currently A/S-equivalent for Strategic Affairs and Araud’s replacement as Political Director, has told us he expects to spend “most of his time” in 2009 on non-proliferation and disarmament issues. He called for continued engagement and early coordination, hoping to meet again on the sidelines of an expected P5 confidence-building meeting in London in September. Elysee Military Advisor Edouard Guillaud added France was eager to support U.S. ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, for example by sending French experts to the U.S. and by providing briefings to Codels in Paris.
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FRENCH WORRIES
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¶5. (S/NF) In large part, France’s desire to work ever more closely with the United States on nuclear issues reflects new concerns with U.S. policy, based on analysis of recent statements by President Obama, specifically his comments that: “The notion that prestige comes from holding these weapons, or that we can protect ourselves by picking and choosing which nations can have these weapons, is an illusion,” (Moscow) and “No single nation should pick and chose which nations hold nuclear weapons. That is why I strongly reaffirmed America’s commitment to seek a world in which no nations hold nuclear weapons” (Cairo). The French read this as counter to the spirit of the NPT, in which this discrimination is inherent. Although U.S. interlocutors have pointed out that these speeches were intended to strengthen NPT principles, Araud and Ministry of Defense U/S-equivalent for Strategic Affairs Michel Miraillet said they fear non-aligned nations and NPT violators can easily interpret these remarks to their advantage. Miraillet even asked for advance warning of any speeches about nuclear issues that might contain “surprises.” Several of our French interlocutors have expressed concerns that these statements focus more on disarmament than on non-proliferation. Araud, Audibert, and MFA DAS-equivalent for Disarmament and Nonproliferation Martin Briens said that in touting U.S.-Russian negotiations and elaborating a long-term vision of total disarmament in the President’s speeches, the U.S. will make it easier for non-aligned nations to focus at the 2010 RevCon on actual progress on disarmament and avoid discussions of non-proliferation.
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IRAN
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¶6. (S/NF) The GOF has expressed its dismay at the U.S. decision to not mention Iran by name and make reference to its need to adhere to the Additional Protocol at the PrepCon.  The French have indicated that the NPT’s most urgent mission is to curb the Iranian potential to develop nuclear weapons. In order to address Iran head-on, Briens has emphasized that partners will have to abandon fears that they might disturb an atmosphere conducive to larger engagement of Iran. France has also welcomed U.S. assurances that we do not support nuclear capabilities for Saudi Arabia or Egypt, which they said would be tantamount to accepting a nuclear armed Iran. The French focus on Iran at the NPT comes in the context of a general French preference for strong rhetoric and strong action on Iran, based on the apparently broad GOF consensus that a nuclear Iran presents an unacceptable danger to French interests. While numerous French officials have highlighted their efforts to encourage strengthening sanctions against Iran with EU and UN partners, they have little optimism that these efforts will bear fruit. They are now concentrating on close cooperation with the United States and individual bilateral measures by individual partners to help increase pressure on the Iranian regime.
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FMCT
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¶7. (S/NF) France is currently reviewing its policy on an FMCT, a process the GOF expects to complete by the end of September. France has stopped its own production of fissile materials, and is in favor of a multilateral FMCT, which they view as a key measure to cap stockpiles in China, India, Israel, and Brazil by addressing the issue of future production in a legal regime. However, Briens has made clear that any effort to address the issue of existing stocks within the agreement is a French redline. Noting France’s transparency in admitting its total number of weapons, Briens said limiting its small stocks of fissile materials would undercut the credibility of France’s long-term deterrent. While France is willing to discuss transparency on stockpiles within the P5, French officials have repeatedly said they will not accept tabling this issue in Geneva. As France proceeds with its policy review, French officials have expressed interest in U.S. views on verification and sanctions for non-compliance.
¶8. (S/NF) In the context of an FMCT, French officials have repeatedly mentioned China’s expected opposition to real progress, regretting that, unlike France or the United States, the Chinese are not publicly challenged on their lack of action. As part of an effort to encourage movement by the Chinese, the MFA Disarmament and Non-proliferation section’s Celine Jurgensen told us that France intends to call for a
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universal moratorium on fissile material production as FMCT negotiations proceed (ref D). Noting potential progress in Geneva on starting these negotiations, Jurgensen said France intends to move as soon as possible, potentially making its plea for a moratorium at UN First Committee discussions this autumn.
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AN OPPORTUNITY TO INFLUENCE U.S. RHETORIC?
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¶9. (S/NF) As the GOF’s focus on President Obama’s speeches shows, French concerns currently focus on U.S. rhetoric and they hope to shape our views in their favor during the current U.S. policy reviews underway. As Briens told us, France is worried that non-aligned countries will try and use the RevCon as a referendum on P5 progress on disarmament to forestall calls to fulfill non-proliferation obligations or take on new ones, such as the Additional Protocol. Even if the U.S. is fully committed to disarmament, the results will be long term, allowing non-aligned countries to cite a lack of progress by the time of the RevCon as a sign of P5 hypocrisy.
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FRANCE’S UNTOUCHABLE REDLINE: DELEGITIMIZING DETERRENCE
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