Wikileaks -- Teflon Merkel !!! Η ΤΕΦΛΟΝ ΜΕΡΚΕΛ!!

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BERLIN 001106




SIPDIS



E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2019

TAGS: GM PREL PGOV

SUBJECT: CHANCELLOR ANGELA "TEFLON" MERKEL TAKES LIMELIGHT

AS FDP WAITS IN THE WINGS



Classified By: MINISTER COUNSELOR FOR POLITICAL AFFAIRS GEORGE GLASS FO

R REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)



SUMMARY

-------



¶1. (C) Less than two weeks after her party suffered losses

in two state elections, CDU Chancellor Angela Merkel found

her fighting spirit before 8,000 party faithful at a

September 6 election rally in Duesseldorf launching the "hot

phase" of the CDU/CSU electoral campaign. The CDU has been

shifting party tactics after its losses in the August 30

elections in Saarland and Thuringia, where the Social

Democratic Party (SPD) may now be in a position to form

coalitions with the Left Party. Merkel -- to great applause

-- focused in on the specter of a so-called red-red

government composed of the SPD and The Left Party. She

described the SPD as suffering from an "identity crisis," and

needing a vacation from political decision-making and time in

opposition. Along with the entire CDU leadership and

incumbent CDU/CSU Ministers-president, Merkel made her case

for a CDU/CSU coalition with the pro-business but socially

liberal FDP. She repeated the CDU/CSU's election mantra: "we

have the strength" throughout her speech, aiming to convince

the German electorate that a strong CDU/CSU is required for

Germany to emerge from its worst economic recession in

post-war history. CDU views on whether the issue of

Germany's role in Afghanistan would become a more prominent

campaign theme were mixed.



¶2. (C) With three weeks to go before the parliamentary

elections, all signs point to Chancellor Merkel returning to

office, although she and her party recognize that they face a

difficult campaign. It remains uncertain whether the CDU and

the FDP will gain enough support to form a majority

coalition. If not, another Grand Coalition (CDU/CSU-SPD) is

very likely; other options require a three-party

constellation that would force the ill-suited Greens and FDP

to work together. But, there seems to be an almost one

hundred percent certainty -- given the SPD's chronic slump in

the polls and limited coalition options -- that SPD Foreign

Minister and Chancellor-candidate Frank Walter Steinmeier

will not become Chancellor. End summary.



MERKEL CASTS ASIDE SPD, EMBRACES FDP

------------------------------------



¶3. (C) Chancellor Merkel -- to rapturous cries of "Angie,

Angie" and a standing ovation -- took to the floor at her

party's September 6 rally before some 8,000 supporters

affirming that the CDU/CSU "have the best chance to win the

parliamentary elections" but also cautioning that "the

election's outcome has not yet been decided." On the one

hand, she praised her Grand Coalition government's record,

noting its success in countering Germany's economic and

financial crisis. On the other hand, she called for a new

CDU/CSU coalition with the FDP after the upcoming elections--

casting aside the SPD. She asserted that such a coalition

would anchor Germany in the "middle" of the political

spectrum and take the country out of its current economic

crisis faster. Merkel said: "Our country needs a government

that will support growth, security and work for everyone."

In a swipe at the SPD (COMMENT: Merkel never mentioned

Steinmeier by name. END COMMENT.), she said the party is

currently plagued by an "identity crisis," adding that, "The

SPD is devoid of any reality and is distraught." She asked,

"How can a party that achieved 10, 18, and 24 percent at the

recent state elections in Saxony, Thuringia, and Saarland be

taken seriously?" Dismissing SPD warnings against a

so-called "black-yellow" (CDU/CSU-FDP) coalition, Merkel said

that the country should be more worried about the SPD's plans

to form coalitions with The Left Party on the state and

federal levels. (Note: The SPD has warned that a

black-yellow coalition would represent wealthy Germany and

business interest at the expense of the middle and lower

classes.)



¶4. (U) CDU leaders also tried to cast the CDU at the state

level in a positive light after its poor showing in the

Saarland and Thuringia state elections on August, causing the

Minister President of the latter state to resign. Lower

Saxony's CDU Minister President Christian Wulff asserted that

the most prosperous and successful "Laender" (states) in

Germany are those ruled by the CDU/CSU and FDP. He cited

Berlin, governed by SPD Mayor Klaus Wowereit's Berlin (NOTE:

in Berlin the SPD rules with The Left Party. END NOTE), as

being the worst case. Hesse's Minister President Roland Koch

-- to great applause -- noted that he could not understand

how the SPD could possibly cooperate on a state or national

level with a Left Party that is "anti-American and

anti-European." (Note: In Saarland and Thuringia the option



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exists for the SPD to form a governing coalition with the

Left Party. END NOTE.)



CSU Truce with FDP?

-------------------



¶5. (C) CSU Bavarian Minister-President Horst Seehofer threw

his party's support behind a CDU/CSU coalition with the FDP,

despite his well-publicized doubts about the FDP's real

coalition intentions after the parliamentary elections. Even

as Seehofer pronounced his support for the FDP in

Duesseldorf, however, media reports from Munich confirmed

that the CSU had decided to continue attacking the FDP. The

CSU has been buffing its economic bona fides by attacking the

FDP on its own themes while basking in the reflected glory

from popular Economics Minister zu Guttenberg, the new CSU

champion. Seehofer has publicly suspected that FDP Chairman

Guido Westerwelle -- in an attempt to enter government at all

costs -- might support a "traffic light" coalition with the

SPD and the Greens, although this political constellation

appears unlikely at present. In addition, Bavarian politics

trump national politics, especially during a time when the

CSU longs for the days when their party alone wielded

political power in Munich, rather than as it does today, in a

coalition with the FDP. Seehofer is also aware that the CSU

needs to be strong and the FDP proportionally more weak for

the CSU to win more and better ministerial posts in a

CDU/CSU-FDP coalition. He did not use his appearance in

Duesseldorf to chide the FDP, to the great delight of those

pleading that recent CDU/CSU-FDP bickering had been harmful

and counter-productive during the campaign.





AFGHANISTAN - A DOMESTIC CAMPAIGN ISSUE?

----------------------------------------



¶6. (C) The September 4 air strike against two fuel tankers

near Kunduz, Afghanistan hit the press right before the

CDU/CSU rally. In light of the German media's frenzy, PolOff

asked the CDU's Head of International Relations Klemens

Moemkes whether Germany's ISAF commitment might emerge as a

potential domestic campaign issue. Moemkes noted that the

SPD could make Afghanistan an issue but this would be very

odd given Foreign Minister Steinmeier's support for Germany's

military role in ISAF. However, the prospect of Afghanistan

becoming a major theme clearly had the CDU's xxxxx

spooked. He told PolOff that it would be very difficult for

the Chancellor not to address Germany's role in Afghanistan

in the coming weeks. Given the German public's overwhelming

support for a withdrawal of German troops from Afghanistan,

this was not an issue the Chancellor wanted to address in the

run-up to the parliamentary elections.



COMMENT

-------



¶7. (C) While it is all but certain that Chancellor Merkel

will return to office as Chancellor after the next

parliamentary elections on September 27, it is too close to

call whether she will achieve a coalition with the FDP.

Bavarian MP Seehofer's attacks on the FDP in Bavaria could

weaken that party there and further undermine the chances of

a coalition. The FDP wants the same but political bickering

over future ministerial positions and CSU attacks on the FDP

in Bavaria and on FDP Chairman Guido Westerwelle suggest that

a possible CDU/CSU-FDP coalition will not be a marriage made

in heaven. Some FDP contacts admit that they harbor doubts

about the Chancellor's promise to form a coalition with the

FDP. They insinuate that in reality she may prefer another

Grand Coalition with the SPD, although Chancellor Merkel has

used every public opportunity to advertise for a CDU/CSU-FDP

coalition. Backing down on this pledge would call into

question her reputation.



¶8. (C) Paradoxically, however, it is the CDU/CSU's relative

weakness in the polls (35-36 percent) that threatens a

possible CDU/CSU-FDP coalition. The FDP is clearly riding on

a high with double-digit successes in the state elections of

Saarland, Saxony, and Thuringia, but this may not be enough.

The CDU refuses to engage in any self-introspection after its

defeats in Saarland and Thuringia and the party can really

only take comfort from the SPD's perennial weakness. The

fear in the CDU is acute that the Chancellor's high

popularity ratings may not be enough to ensure a comfortable

win for the CDU/CSU at the parliamentary elections.



¶9. (C) Merkel, once again, vehemently denies any intention

to form a Grand Coalition with the SPD but the electoral math

on September 27 may force her -- despite intense CDU/CSU

reservations, not to mention those of the German public -- to

look at the SPD as a partner. As for the SPD, Steinmeier is



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looking desperate. The SPD has failed to reach over 25

percent in the last six elections and Steinmeier's unlikely

path to the chancellorship is only possible if he reneges on

a campaign promise not to form a coalition with The Left

Party. This will not happen in 2009 but the CDU/CSU will not

tire of raising the fear of a red-red coalition in 2009 or in

¶2013. The Chancellor appears to be in a win-win situation

but three weeks on the campaign trail can be an eternity.

End comment.

Murphy